Michael Weinstein, along with his research team at JPMorgan, recently conducted a survey of 140 U.S. interventional cardiologists in anticipation of FDA approval and market launch of Johnson & Johnson’s Cypher drug-eluting stent.
The purpose of the survey was to gauge market adoption and assess the impact not only on Johnson & Johnson, but each of the relevant players. Survey results suggests that adoption curve for drug-eluting stents (DES) will be steeper than current Street expectations. Respondents were asked to assume a January 1, 2003 Cypher approval with incremental CMS reimbursement kicking in April 1 as planned.
Respondents’ mean anticipated penetration rate for DES was 46% in 1Q03, jumping to 67% in 2Q03, 73% in 3Q03, and 77% in 4Q03. The survey foretells extensive use in diabetics (88% penetration) and in vessels <3.0mm (88% penetration).
The biggest obstacle to greater penetration is seen as device cost, followed by the need for data on more complex lesions and patient subsets. The JPMorgan survey suggests that demand will not be the limiting factor for market adoption, but rather (1) the timing of approval, (2) J&J’s labeling, and (3) its ability to quickly ramp-up manufacturing.
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