WESTPORT, CT (Reuters Health) – The number of Americans diagnosed with diabetes is projected to increase by 165% over the next 50 years; but getting more people to change their diet and exercise habits could help slow the trend, researchers report in the November issue of Diabetes Care.
According to Dr. James P. Boyle from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta and colleagues, 29 million Americans will be diagnosed with diabetes in 2050, compared with about 11 million today.
Adults 75 years of age and older, who are a growing segment of the population, will comprise the bulk of new cases. Diabetes rates will be high among black men and women, at 363% and 217%, respectively. Both white men and women will also see diabetes rates more than double during this period, according to the report.
"Our projection of diabetes burden in the US indicates that the situation may be more alarming than previously believed," Dr. Boyle and co-authors write.
Factors implicated in the growing rates of diabetes include population growth, poor health habits and changing demographic trends. For example, blacks, who have higher rates of diabetes than whites, will represent roughly 15% of the US population in 50 years compared with about 13% today. The number of white Americans is expected to decline to 75% of the population from more than 82% over the same period, according to data from the US Census Bureau.
The researchers note that the report may actually underestimate future rates of diabetes because many cases are undiagnosed. It is estimated that as many as one third of those with diabetes are not diagnosed. Additionally, the study did not include projections for Hispanics, a group with increasing rates of the disease.
"The good news is, we also have enormous amounts of recent data that show us how to help prevent the onset of diabetes and its complications through lifestyle changes," Dr. Boyle commented in a statement. "Our study strongly supports the need for people who are at risk for diabetes to make these changes, such as developing better eating habits and maintaining a regular exercise program."
Diabetes Care 2001;24:1936-1940.
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